The Coming NFL Implosion?

It looks like this Super Bowl “Big Game” might be culmination of the last season of NFL football as we know it. The party line is unless an agreement can be hashed out between the players and the owners the league will have an uncapped year in 2010, followed by a lockout in 2011.

The realty is unless the owners can hash out an agreement amongst themselves the league will basically  rend apart in 2010, followed by mass suicide in 2011.

The problem isn’t what the players make(which invariably works out to about what the TV contract is within 5%) it’s what counts for revenue sharing amongst the owners and the wide disparity between the haves and have nots amongst billionaires. Regular ticket sales are split 60-40 between owners to smooth out revenues, while club seats and sky boxes aren’t. Parking isn’t split, the same with concessions.  As a result, you have the Dallas Cowboys charging almost $70 a carload and Washington not having replay screens so they can rent out handheld sets for an arm and a leg to maximize non shared revenue.  The non shared cash these stadiums throw off (even allowing for the insane debt servicing levels) allows them to spend big on free agent signing bonuses and gain a competitive advantage. This has forced teams like Buffalo to move regular season games to Toronto and the Vikings and Jacksonville to look longingly towards Los Angeles.

Next season not only will be a uncapped season, it will also not have a salary floor. You could see a number of teams spending below the floor such as Arizona, Jacksonville, St Louis, Buffalo and the poster child, Tampa Bay.

The Glazer’s just refinanced their purchase of Manchester United again, bringing the total debt outstanding to over $1.1 billion dollars. The current debt servicing this year is $70mm alone. Facing that and a crappy on field product, I could see them trading down from the #3 overall pick and possibly even out of the first round altogether in order to save money and rebuild the roster quickly. Payroll could be substantially below this year’s floor of $112mm.

So you have billionaire who’ve had a rough go in this economy and want the players to become a junior partner in order to get that extra zero back in their net worth, but a  lockout in 2011 would be very damaging to teams that facing massive debt servicing. In a perfect season a team at best will only have 13 games(if they host the Super Bowl) to generate revenue, save the odd concert or monster truck rally. Jerry Jones is working his tail off to get as many events as humanly possible there in order to service his $700mm stadium debt. The Jets and Giants will have 20 games(plus playoffs) to whack away at their shared debts.

It’s odd that the teams that stand to benefit the most from the status quo will be the most exposed if there is no season in 2011.

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How To Win by a Ton and Not Feel Good About It.

I’m trying to figure out who had the crappier game yet still scored 50+ points, ASU or USC. ASU went into scrimmage mode 2nd quarter even though they only were up 10-0, Idaho State’s O is that bad and Devils D is that good.

Danny Sullivan is servicable as a QB ; manages the game well enough can through the ball away. Needs to be more accurate with his throws to the slot reciever otherwise he’s gonna get someone hurt.

O line was improved early, but got fatigued and sloppy as the towards the end of the 1st half.

Dmitri Nance is nominally the starting tailback, but he’s just not up to it; Can’t explode into holes, not fast enough to make the corner. All the other backs are better, and DeWitty is the best of the bunch(all things being relative) is the #4 back.

The Defense was unbelievable, but it was a mismatch from the get go. Idaho St. had a 1st down on the opening drive, didn’t have another one until late in the 3rd quarter.

Looks like Georgia still hasn’t fixed those O-line issues. I’m guessing the over under for UGA/ASU could be in the twenties and I’d still think about taking the under.

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